A revised working paper by Seiryu Ando
Seiryu Ando's working paper was revised on SSRN on August 15, 2026. It was first posted on July 24, 2026; the date of this announcement follows the revision.
The Temporal Structure of Forecast Error on Polymarket: A Decomposition of Brier Loss over the 30 Days before Operational Market Closure
Forecast error before market closure
The paper studies 1,818 markets and 1,393 events, comparing Brier loss at six checkpoints in the 30 days before operational market closure. The Research article introduces the measurement approach, findings, and limits of interpretation.
Explore the research
Read the overview or open the original working paper on SSRN.